New Clear War with Russia.

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New Clear War with Russia.

Postby fruitbat » Sat Sep 10, 2016 11:37 pm

Although I'm not a deep thinker, I am able to read well enough.
I have been reading a lot of articles recently about the world situation, and the topic of the increased potential for nuclear war has been cropping up a bit of late.
One series of topics by a guy who trades under the nom-de-plume of "The Saker" appears to display some serious insight into the russian psyche.

He says that the russians do not want war, but fear it immensely. He (and others) further illuminate that here in the west we have become complancent about nuclear war, concentrating on I-phones and foreign adventures with mismatched opponents that the russkies under A certain Mr Putin have been busy updating and inventing, to the extent that they have effective anti ballistic missiles, (and lots of them), they have long posessed a functioning hypersonic "global strike" capability with the nuclear option available as required and many of their ICBMS are both mirved and not only independently retargettable, but also "agile" in the re-entry phase (for those of you who used to play video games in the 1970's think atari "missile command" to get an idea of how complicated shooting down these babys will be, unless Col Corso is right about starwars, in which case it's all posturing)

On one hand, my common sense rebels at the thought that some anonymous bloke deep in russkistanea could press a button with the unknowing (and uncaring) consequence of obliterating my cat. (And many others). We had one such person here a while ago, who I had hoped to engage in some conversation that would enlighten me how a normal looking father with kids could somehow persuade himself that being prepared to launch on receipt of his orders is in anyway not evil.

I undertsand the principle of armed deterrence, but I also understand teh outcome of that scene in reservoir dogs where they are all pointing gnus at each other and despite some serious and urgently diplomacy, the wildebeest still all get fired. (If you get my drift)

Most of all, I understand that all nuclear issues have been surrounded in lies and deception, and whilst we are already harvesting our nuclear crop in japan, I fear it could get worse before it gets better, if the human race doesn't rather abruptly "up it's game".

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Re: New Clear War with Russia.

Postby nate » Sun Sep 11, 2016 10:24 am

fruitbat wrote:A certain Mr Putin have been busy updating and inventing, to the extent that they have effective anti ballistic missiles, (and lots of them), they have long posessed a functioning hypersonic "global strike" capability with the nuclear option available as required


That... is not good. I've been very worried about the US Global Strike concept, since it would make it much harder for, eg, the Russians to distinguish between a conventional launch and a nuclear launch. If Russia also has conventional launches... then that makes the US job of launch detection that much more awkward. And mistakes can indeed happen.

For me, for about the last five years I've found myself fixated on early 1980s music. Lots of songs about computers, science and especially nuclear war. This decade feels in so many ways like a rerun of the 80s. Tech is big again. The economy in freefall. Austerity policies. International tension. A new Cold War. 'All options' on the table.

Something in the last few weeks particularly seems to have drawn me back to that playlist, and I'm not sure yet what it is. But I agree. I seem to feel a sense of danger in my bones too.

One thing I take from this is perhaps as much hope as a warning. We survived the 1980s. Most of my generation (Gen-X) thought we wouldn't. Despair was woven so deeply into the fabric of that decade. I think James Cameron's Terminator 2 was one of the few movies to actually deal with that emotion, around 1990, of Judgement Day being cancelled. A generation has grown up not knowing what it was like to know, absolutely for sure, that the world would end before you reached adulthood. All the best minds in the world agreed that we were doomed. And then suddenly we weren't.

I don't understand a lot of the stories told about ETs on earth. I can, I think, from a certain point of view see similarities with a very long-running thread in most of our mythologies and religions, about forces of good and evil fighting for our souls and for this planet. Whether these are just metaphors for the inner war inside our own psyches, or something outside ourself - or perhaps both/and - I think preventing nuclear war is still pretty high up there on the list of things the Good Guys want, whoever and whatever they may be.

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Re: New Clear War with Russia.

Postby nate » Tue Sep 13, 2016 2:22 am

Ah. That'll explain why nuclear has been on my mind in the last few days. Had completely missed this in the news or any of my online feeds, but it seems my subconscious spidey-sense picked it up.

http://learningenglish.voanews.com/a/no ... 04294.html
The United States and its allies are reacting to North Korea’s latest nuclear test.

The test, carried out on September 9th, was the country’s second nuclear test this year.

Some reports say the North Korean government may already be planning more testing.

Last Friday, North Korea said it exploded a nuclear device underground. It was the country’s fifth nuclear test since 2006. Measurements showed the explosion was stronger than North Korea’s four earlier nuclear tests.


http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/ar ... d=11708794
US bombers fly in show of force to North Korea
1:18 PM Tuesday Sep 13, 2016

The United States has flown nuclear-capable supersonic bombers over ally South Korea in a show of force.

The move is meant to cow North Korea after its fifth nuclear test and also to settle rattled nerves in the South.

The B-1 bombers, escorted by US and South Korean jets, were seen by an Associated Press photographer as they streaked over the Osan Air Base, which is 120km from the border with North Korea.

The bombers were likely to return to their base in Guam, without landing in South Korea.

Such flyovers are common during tense times.

South Korea does not have nuclear weapons and relies on the US "nuclear umbrella" as a deterrent to North Korea.

North Korea says US hostility is the reason it needs a nuclear bomb programme.

-AP


The North Korean test was UTC 12:30am on 9 September, according to Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_n ... orth_Korea
That would be 12:30pm on Friday the 9th, NZ time. The first news reports started coming out after 2pm NZ time. Eg http://bigstory.ap.org/article/f2fcccf7 ... orth-korea

I think now that I did see one of those early reports but it didn't quite register consciously, and I even forgot about it. But it must have struck a chord with me at quite a deep level.

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Re: New Clear War with Russia.

Postby nate » Tue Sep 13, 2016 10:57 am

And an odd piece of shadow language.

http://www.local8now.com/content/news/N ... 31531.html
Nuclear blasts in North Korea detected by seismograph in East Tennessee

By Casey Wheeless |
Posted: Fri 5:27 PM, Sep 09, 2016

TOWNSEND, Tenn. (WVLT)- East Tennessee plays a special role in keeping watch over world events.

From a quiet spot in a cavern, scientists can detect any seismic activity. Including that nuclear test North Korea conducted Friday morning.

"This is the most sensitive seismograph on the planet. It was installed by the United State Military Department of Defense," said Benjamin Vananda, manager at Tuckaleechee Caverns.

A seismograph that can detect any movement in the world is hidden inside the cave. It will measure earthquakes and nuclear blasts like the 5.3 magnitude shake in North Korea Friday morning.

"We knew exactly what it was because when you have a nuclear blast you'll have a straight up and down line," said Vananda.

The tool was installed into the caverns during the Cold War for the purpose of monitoring nuclear activity.

"This is the oldest mountain range in the world and they're able to mount those sensors directly to the bed rock instead of having to drill through dirt and gravel which causes a muffle," he said.

Any nuclear detection is sent to the U.S. Department of Defense.

"They can see it within a hundredth of a millisecond after it registers here," he said.

So whether it's an earthquake in Japan or a nuclear test from across the world. This small town of Townsend is making a big impact on world.

"You don't expect to have something like this in Townsend, this is a very sophisticated system," said Vananda.


https://www.ctbto.org/verification-regi ... ed-states/
AS107, Tuckaleechee Caverns,
Tennessee, United States

Tuckaleechee Caverns are located in Tuckaleechee Cove, one of five geological windows through overlying Precambrian strata, which exposes the older limestone of the Knox formation. The cave is a typical karst formation, a landscape formed by the dissolution of layers of soluble bedrock, such as limestone or dolomite, by water.

The climate is moderate and continental with hot, humid summers. Winters are mild with scant snowfall. Strong winds and hurricanes occasionally hit the area.

Within the cave (where sensor and digitizer are installed), the temperature is constant at approximately 15°C year round, which is beneficial for the precision of seismic measurements. Although humidity is close to 100%, due to the low temperatures, there is little condensation on equipment.

The United States hosts more International Monitoring System (IMS) facilities than any other Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) Member State: these include five primary and 11 auxiliary seismic stations in addition to AS107, two hydroacoustic stations, eight infrasound stations, 11 radionuclide stations and one radionuclide laboratory.

Mandate of Auxiliary Seismic Stations

Auxiliary seismic stations are mandated to provide data to the International Data Centre (IDC) upon request only but then with immediate availability. The purpose of this additional data is to improve location accuracy of seismic events detected by the primary seismic network. It is also to characterize the seismic sources with greater precision in order to ascertain what kind of event has taken place; for example, an earthquake or an explosion.


IMS Station Location

AS 107 is the only IMS seismic station to cover the large eastern part of the United States. The station is privately owned but can be accessed any time of the year by prior arrangement with the owners. The cave is generally open daily to the public from mid-March to mid-November.

Station Profile

The original seismic station was established in 1978 by the Tennessee Earthquake Information Center (TEIC) as part of its network in cooperation with Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA). The University of Tennessee at Knoxville (UTK) took over responsibility for the TVA seismic network in 1995.

All seismic stations, including this one at Tuckaleechee Caverns, have three basic parts: a seismometer to measure the ground motion, a recording system which records the data digitally with an accurate time stamp, and a communication system interface.

AS 107 is connected to the public AC power grid and is equipped with a back-up capacity of approximatively two hours.

This station is, in principle, a very quiet site although regional mining activities create a certain amount of “noise” during weekday mining operations. To a lesser extent, occasional car traffic in the Cavern’s parking lot seems to show up on seismograms.

Testing and Certification

The AS107 station upgrade was completed in July 2005 for seismic equipment and in June 2006 for the Global Communications Infrastructure (GCI). In June 2006 the station was connected to the IMS lab and has been sending continuous data ever since. The station parameters were accepted by the IDC in August 2006.

The first station visit was conducted in July 2005 in order to install equipment. The GCI had to be relocated to a new location with a better view of the satellite, which was completed in 2006. A second station visit was undertaken in June 2006 to complete the GCI installation, implement network connections and carry out certification tests. The station started sending data to the IDC in June 2006.

In terms of data availability, continuous data have been received in the IMS lab since June 2006 without any interruption (i.e. 100% data availability) and all automatic data requests have been satisfied promptly. Accordingly, AS107 was certified on 22 August 2006.


https://www.ctbto.org/verification-regi ... structure/
The GCI was designed to ensure data transmission from the 337 facilities of the International Monitoring System (IMS) in near-real time to the International Data Centre (IDC) in Vienna where data are processed and analysed. The GCI is also used to distribute the raw data from IMS stations as well as IDC data bulletins to Member States. This very detailed information enables Member States to assume their rights and responsibilities under the CTBT.

The GCI is the first global satellite communications network based on Very Small Aperture Terminal (VSAT) technology. A VSAT is a set-up on the ground called earth station that allows for communication via a satellite. It employs a dish antenna to send and receive signals, and an interface to a PC.

VSATs connect to six communication satellites which are located at a height of 36,000 kilometres above the equator. This figure depicts the teleports and satellites in use just after the migration to a new contractor in 2008.

More than 250 VSAT links have been established so far to ensure communication with IMS monitoring facilities and national data centres (NDCs). The number continues to increase with more IMS stations being built. Each station needs to be equipped with communication devices to enable the sending of data for analysis to the IDC in Vienna. When several IMS monitoring stations are co-located, they use one VSAT set-up for the communication needs of all stations.

VSATs connect to six communication satellites which are located at a height of 36,000 kilometres above the equator. The satellites are geostationary, i.e. they rotate along with the Earth. Three of the satellites cover the areas of the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian Oceans. The other three satellites are stationed above North America, Europe and the North Pacific Region to provide for a more efficient coverage of the Northern Hemisphere.

To build, maintain and operate the entire GCI network, the CTBTO engages a contractor who specializes in the field of global telecommunications. The second ten-year contract with a communication service provider expires in 2018 and a new service provider procurement process has started.

The organization will be migrating the entire GCI network infrastructure to the network of the new service provider (to be known as GCI 3). This involves changing satellites, shifting VSAT antennas to the new satellites and installing new communications equipment at more than 250 VSAT And Internet VPN locations all over the world. Communication set-ups for newly built monitoring stations will also be integrated into the new network.


The CTBTO having its own global satellite constellation is pretty cool. Though if any application required one, nuclear monitoring seems like it would. If less than 10 years old, it seems like this is a very recent network, so perhaps commodity off the shelf commercial? Probably not using exotic gravity waves, I guess is what I'm saying. I mean, sure, it might! But since we have a lot of commercial VSAT-based satellite providers today, with well-defined comms standards, probably not.

I assume, though, that some previous organisation was doing nuclear monitoring before the CTBTO? Did that organisation have its own satellite comms infrastructure? I assume 'yes' and 'very yes' because nuclear monitoring = pretty darn mission-critical to the entire US strategic war plan since 1945. Was it US Navy or someone else?

"Teleport" here, by the way, is apparently a term of art in satellite communications. Short for "telecommunications port". Not as exciting as it may at first seem.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ground_station
A telecommunications port—or, more commonly, teleport—is a satellite ground station that functions as a hub connecting a satellite or geocentric orbital network with a terrestrial telecommunications network, such as the Internet.

Teleports may provide various broadcasting services among other telecommunications functions,[4] such as uploading computer programs or issuing commands over an uplink to a satellite.[5]

In May 1984, the Dallas/Fort Worth Teleport became the first American teleport to commence operation.[citation needed]


VSAT: seems perfectly normal. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Very-smal ... e_terminal
A very small aperture terminal (VSAT) is a two-way satellite ground station with a dish antenna that is smaller than 3 meters. The majority of VSAT antennas range from 75 cm to 1.2 m. Data rates range from 4 kbit/s up to 16 Mbit/s. VSATs access satellites in geosynchronous orbit to relay data from small remote Earth stations (terminals) to other terminals (in mesh topology) or master Earth station "hubs" (in star topology).

VSATs are used to transmit narrowband data (e.g., point-of-sale transactions using credit cards, polling or RFID data, or SCADA), or broadband data (for the provision of satellite Internet access to remote locations, VoIP or video). VSATs are also used for transportable, on-the-move (utilising phased array antennas) or mobile maritime communications.

The first commercial VSATs were C band (6 GHz) receive-only systems by Equatorial Communications using spread spectrum technology. More than 30,000 60 cm antenna systems were sold in the early 1980s. Equatorial later developed a C band (4/6 GHz) two-way system using 1 m x 0.5 m antennas and sold about 10,000 units in 1984–85.


I don't understand why, if VSAT was there at the beginning of geosynchronous satellite operations in the 1960s, the CTBTO GCI (going online in 2006) would be considered 'the first' global VSAT link.

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Re: New Clear War with Russia.

Postby fruitbat » Tue Sep 13, 2016 8:32 pm

Good call on the FM Black Noise album, mate!
My cd finally got delivered today. Of course I listened to it on you tube, but a cd usually sounds better..
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Re: New Clear War with Russia.

Postby fruitbat » Tue Sep 13, 2016 9:19 pm

NK have been testing Iranian rocketry apparently, and seemingly, miniaturised warheads.
Now it looks like they are scaling up a bit.

ANYONE who knows it took the American government 18 months to make three working nuclear bombs, using 1940's technolgy and making up the procedures as they go along, must surely be able to deduce that IRAN, with the latest plans made in pakistan, has been churning out nuclear pits like there is no tomorrow after 20 YEARS of using vast fields of the latest centrifuge technology all watched over by Siemens SCADA networks (apart for a bit of a blip caused by a virus known as stuxnet). The question in my mind is what have they done with what surely must be a prodigious nuclear arsenal by now? With nukes there is a fixed time period (which I do not know) where the pits degrade due to their own raging nuclear instabilty. I believe they fracture and oxidise and generally go "crappy" after a relatively short number of years, hence the need for pantex et al to recast and purify them again. Alright, the term is "phase change" and plute does it a lot I gather. It seems likely that U235 is similar.

I keep recalling that damned scene in "reservoir Dogs" where they are all pointing guns at each other and despite some last minute diplomacy and attempts at reason, someone fires... I have seen some NK internal propaganda videos translated into English and they would indeed seem to be modelled on the old soviet style of propaganda. I know one thing. IF my government HAS to attempt to control my thinking, I am sure I'd prefer to be inflicted with a few comical propaganda films than an atrocity as seems to have occurred IN the USA on The Eleventh of september two thousand and one. The BBC did a damn fine documentary about North Korea a few years back. I really liked the idea that everyone gets out in the street on saturday morning and does some shared excercising to martial/patriotic music!

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Re: New Clear War with Russia.

Postby nate » Tue Sep 20, 2016 10:20 pm

fruitbat wrote:Good call on the FM Black Noise album, mate!
My cd finally got delivered today. Of course I listened to it on you tube, but a cd usually sounds better..


Yay! I'm having a lot of fun (re)discovering all sorts of late-70s-to-early-80s music. I always thought there was a lot of 'spacey music on the radio' when I was a kid and it seems there really was. So much of it vanished from the mainstream charts when the 90s hit. I guess it's somewhat back in fashion now.

If you're interested, my finished playlist on the 80s nuclear war theme: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=P ... JCmgtq7XiG I picked music I like to listen to, which isn't perhaps everyone's taste, but I'm allegedly a grownup now and that means if I like bleepy noises made by nerdy white kids with computers who can't dance then that's what I get.

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Re: New Clear War with Russia.

Postby nate » Fri Sep 23, 2016 7:30 am

Huh. Russian Tu-160 supersonic nuclear-capable bombers intercepted by RAF near British airspace: http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britai ... KKCN11S25V

That makes three unrelated international incidents with nuclear overtones in the last week or so, if I've not missed one.

The other two being North Korea's nuclear tests (http://edition.cnn.com/2016/09/21/asia/ ... index.html ) and India threatening war on Pakistan for an army base attack ( http://edition.cnn.com/2016/09/21/asia/ ... -conflict/ )


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Re: New Clear War with Russia.

Postby fruitbat » Sat Sep 24, 2016 1:13 pm

I found the following article that seems to illuminate the current situation rather well.
I know some don't like links, so I'l give a link and an excerpt if I may.

https://southfront.org/why-the-recent-d ... sed-agony/

"The latest developments in Syria are not, I believe, the result of some deliberate plan of the USA to help their “moderate terrorist” allies on the ground, but they are the symptom of something even worse: the complete loss of control of the USA over the situation in Syria and, possibly, elsewhere. Let me just re-state what just happened:

First, after days and days of intensive negotiations, Secretary Kerry and Foreign Minister Lavrov finally reached a deal on a cease-fire in Syria which had the potential to at least “freeze” the situation on the ground until the Presidential election in the USA and a change in administration (this is now the single most important event in the near future, therefore no plans of any kind can extend beyond that date).

Then the USAF, along with a few others, bombed a Syrian Army unit which was not on the move or engaged in intense operations, but which was simply holding a key sector of the front. The US strike was followed by a massive offensive of the “moderate terrorists” which was barely contained by the Syrian military and the Russian Aerospace forces. Needless to say, following such a brazen provocation the cease-fire was dead. The Russians expressed their total disgust and outrage at this attacked and openly began saying that the Americans were “недоговороспособны”. What that word means is literally “not-agreement-capable” or unable to make and then abide by an agreement. While polite, this expression is also extremely strong as it implies not so much a deliberate deception as the lack of the very ability to make a deal and abide by it. For example, the Russians have often said that the Kiev regime is “not-agreement-capable”, and that makes sense considering that the Nazi occupied Ukraine is essentially a failed state. But to say that a nuclear world superpower is “not-agreement-capable” is a terrible and extreme diagnostic. It basically means that the Americans have gone crazy and lost the very ability to make any kind of deal. Again, a government which breaks its promises or tries to deceive but who, at least in theory, remains capable of sticking to an agreement would not be described as “not-agreement-capable”. That expression is only used to describe an entity which does not even have the skillset needed to negotiate and stick to an agreement in its political toolkit. This is an absolutely devastating diagnostic."

There's more, but that kinda encapsulates what seems to be going on these days..
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Re: New Clear War with Russia.

Postby nate » Sun Sep 25, 2016 1:08 am

fruitbat wrote:But to say that a nuclear world superpower is “not-agreement-capable” is a terrible and extreme diagnostic. It basically means that the Americans have gone crazy and lost the very ability to make any kind of deal. Again, a government which breaks its promises or tries to deceive but who, at least in theory, remains capable of sticking to an agreement would not be described as “not-agreement-capable”. That expression is only used to describe an entity which does not even have the skillset needed to negotiate and stick to an agreement in its political toolkit. This is an absolutely devastating diagnostic."


Yikes - so are the Russians essentially calling the USA's Syrian activities/proxies, including their airstrikes, a 'failed state' or something at that level? That's a bit rude.

Though Syria is so confusing it wouldn't surprise me in the least if the whole thing had gone completely off everyone's rails.

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